Suji counting is a good strategy for estimating the danger inherent in cutting a non-suji tile. But, how much of an effect does each dead suji have? Let's check out some data from the Houou replays.
First of all, let's look at the overall deal-in rates for each type of tile for an easy comparison. Not all tiles are created equal, after all.
The 19 are the least dangerous suji, as they can only be tanki or shanpon when the suji is denied. The 37 is the most dangerous, as it could be tanki, shanpon, kanchan, or penchan. The rest can only be tanki, shanpon, or kanchan, but the 456 being denied from both sides make them a bit safer than 28.
Now for the big scary chart. How do these change based on the number of live suji?
Click on that image to make it bigger, or maybe open it in a new tab. The averages come around 7 to 10 live suji. With more live suji, they're safer than the overview chart, and with less, they're more dangerous. The danger of suji tiles grows slower than non-suji tiles.
It seems that each dead suji after about five increases the danger of a musuji tile by about 0.5%, or 1% if it's a double musuji tile.
Let's check out honors. For honors, the number of tiles you can see is very important, so let's check the deal-in rate based on how many are visible.
These percentages, when compared to the number tiles, don't always match up with the safety rating tables you find in books. For example, in Riichi Book 1, it says the first suji terminal is safer than the second honor tile, but here, the second honor is a bit safer. And the suji data counts all numbers of visible tiles, so the deal-in rate of the first one should be a bit higher than that table shows. Hmm. Well, it seems to be pretty close, and the book says there's not much difference between tiers.
Like before, we'll also check the deal-in rate based on the number of live suji.
As one might expect, as the number of live suji goes down, the chance they have a non-ryanmen wait likely goes up. Note that since a tile is only dora 1 in 34 times, the dora data is quite thin, hence the oddities at the far side of the chart for the dora tiles. They grow a bit slower than the musuji tiles.
Well, that's pretty much it. A short post. If you want to view the data in spreadsheet form, you can find it here for the number tiles, and here for the honor tiles.
I also gathered the numbers for sanma, which you can find here.
That is very interesting, but where is this data coming from ? From how many games, players, and what is their average level ?
ReplyDeleteWay delayed response, but these are from 1.2 million games in Tenhou's Houou room, so the top 1% of Tenhou players.
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