Exercise - Speed Estimation

This exercise is to give you a better understanding of how fast your hand is, which will let you make better decisions about when to go for value. It will also refine your knowledge of efficiency. This exercise is from Week 1.
Using Hitori Mahjong Simulator, step through a complete hand choice by choice. From 3-shanten down, try to guess how many turns it would take before the hand had a 25% chance of reaching tenpai, and how many turns it would take before the hand had a 50% change of reaching tenpai. Check the extended calculations as outlined in the linked post and compare your guess to the answer.

The exercise is completed when the hand reaches tenpai, or ryuukyoku. Try to get more accurate each time, and look for patterns that lead to certain turn counts. Also, ensure the tile you want to discard is the best for speed and/or value.

For more thorough training, Dasuke has this advice: "In this practice, for every discard, ask yourself, "What is the fastest way to tenpai? What is the fastest way to tsumo a winning hand? How many turns will it take to get there on average? If I was to take a less efficient route to tenpai for more value, how many turns do I actually lose here? How 'good' are some draws compared to others in the ways they affect the speed?""

Video Overview by Dasuke (31:09 to 36:48, and 54:03 to 58:13)